ContentsConclusionsVoluntary change is better than forced change

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It is my personal opinion that opportunities and general job satisfaction are attributes of the programmer (or any professional) who aggressively retools himself. Web applications are still a fairly new thing, and it will take a while for them to catch on.

Regis McKenna (a high tech marketing authority) identifies a "technology adoption curve", where the first phase is that in which the "innovators" are breaking ground. It is an expensive period characterized by heavy research and hype with very few paybacks and even fewer customers.

The next phase is actually a cessation of market activity called "the gap". Somewhat like the calm before the storm, there is no apparent popular interest. That's the time that vendors should be tooling up, because the market has started to digest this new technology and plans are being made.

Then comes the "early adopter" market, which swells to the mainstream. This is where the first real market penetration occurs, and is characterized by vendors coming and going. Eventually the vendors coalesce into several large and capable companies. Generally, the public considers the technology as "stable, but not quite here". Java (the platform) is about the middle of this phase at the time as of Feb. 2000.

Then comes the "late adopter" (or "pragmatist") market, where a tide of demand appears as those who are hesitant about the technology begin to accept it. This is where Internet email is as of now. In fact, more acceptance and greater market penetration is made by vendors during this time than during the previous phases combined.

Finally, there is the "laggard" market. This is the market which avoids new technologies and only adopts the technology when forced to. Microsoft Windows has entered this phase.

Whatever part of the market you are in as you read about servlets and web applications with Java, it is better to get involved and start taking advantage of this technology on a voluntary basis than it is to resist it until you no longer have a choice. You'll have much better opportunities and general job satisfaction if you do :-)

Thank you for reading the servlet utilities tutorial.

- Lee

ContentsConclusionsVoluntary change is better than forced change

Previous: The Internet is here to stay | Next: Contents